Winterdienst-Fachtagung

Pilot-Project: Wettermanufaktur presents Corona-Weather-Index

Berlin, 25 March 2020. Wettermanufaktur starts the pilot project Corona-Weather-Index. From now on the private weather service provider offers a 7-day forecast on the possible weather-related spread of COVID-19 disease for Europe and the United States of America on its website www.corona-weather-index.com.

At the beginning of March the research paper "High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19" was published on the Social Science Research Network. Its authors conclude that high temperature and high relative humidity in summer could effectively reduce the transmission of COVID-19 disease. The researchers calculated the daily effective reproduction rate R for 100 Chinese cities in which more than 40 cases of COVID-19 disease occurred in the period from 21 to 23 January 2020. This figure indicates the severity of infectiousness.

The team of Wettermanufaktur has taken up this approach and developed a so-called Corona-Weather-Index. The activity and behaviour of COVID-19 under different climatic conditions has hardly been researched so far. The index is a pilot project and could be a useful early indicator of when, from a meteorological point of view, the peak of the epidemic may be expected to be delayed or even flattened. The calculation of the index is based on forecasts of air temperature (°C) and relative humidity (%) from various weather models, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The index is available as a 7-day forecast for Europe and the United States of America on the website www.corona-weather-index.com. The maps are provided once a day at 12 am UTC and are updated continuously. The four-level index scale comprises the rating 1 = low transmission risk, 2 = moderate transmission risk, 3 = high transmission risk and 4 = very high transmission risk.

Regardless of the forecasts presented on www.corona-weather-index.com, the specifications and instructions of the respective competent authorities must be followed.

Source:

Wang, Jingyuan and Tang, Ke and Feng, Kai and Lv, Weifeng, High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 (9. März 2020). Available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=3551767 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551767

Pictures:

Forecast for Europe (27 March 2020) and the United States of America (28 March 2020)

Contact:

index@wettermanufaktur.de